Flood prediction using climate model in Rajapur municipality, Bardiya

Flooding refers to the condition where a certain area is partially or entirely submerged in water, which can occur naturally or as a result of human activities. Throughout history, rivers have been a critical source of energy, irrigation, hydroelectricity, and drinking water, but people living near rivers are often exposed to the danger of floods. Therefore, evaluating flood risk is essential for assessing the benefits of flood prevention methods and identifying any remaining hazards. Flood forecasting is a vital component of flood management and disaster risk reduction as it provides advance notice of flood events, protects people's lives and properties, and reduces the impacts of floods while improving the overall effectiveness of emergency response efforts. This study aims to predict future floods hazard zone in Rajapur municipality by using precipitation predicted by climate models This method can help manage weather fluctuations in the coming days and long-term climate shifts. The research focuses on predicting flooding in Rajapur through a flood inundation map, which can assist in understanding, assessing, and forecasting flood events and their effects on the Rajapur Municipality. HEC-HMS software is employed to construct the current hydrological model for the Karnali River basin. Utilizing a Python script with the CORDEX model, future precipitation data for the period 2022-2054 is projected, facilitating the estimation of future discharge within the HEC-HMS model. The HEC-RAS model is then utilized to create flood inundation maps for seven distinct flood return periods. These maps reveal that wards 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, and 10, situated along the Karnali and Geruma Rivers, experience significant inundation during various return periods. The flood inundation maps provide valuable information for disaster preparedness, land-use planning, and decision-making to mitigate flood-related risks.