Livelihood Vulnerability and Adaptive Strategies Assessment of Farmers Living in Rajapur Municipality, Bardiya, Nepal

Floods in the Terai region of Nepal cause substantial damage to property, increasing household indebtedness, disrupt sustainable livelihoods, and trigger migration. Despite the growing frequency and severity of floods, flood vulnerability remains under-researched. This study assesses local climatic trends, livelihood vulnerability, and adaptation strategies among farmers in Wards 1, 3, 4, and 7 of Rajapur Municipality. Specifically, it analyzes local climate trends to determine hazard exposure and assesses the livelihood vulnerability of small, medium, and large farmers using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC frameworks. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of adaptation strategies adopted by these farmer groups in responding to climate-related hazards. It had combined 30 years of climate data with empirical evidence from 160 households, four focus group discussions, and five key informant interviews. Results indicated an average annual temperature increase of 0.0084 °C, with seasonally consistent warming trends, except during the post-monsoon period. Annual average rainfall increased by 8.318 mm annually, while seasonal patterns revealed declining winter and post-monsoon precipitation and rising pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall. The data confirmed that the small farmers have the highest levels of vulnerability, followed by medium and large-scale farmers. Adaptation strategies identified as effective included early warning systems, flood shelters, raised tubewells, capacity-building programs, social networks, and river embankments. This finding contributed to a deeper understanding of flood-related livelihood vulnerabilities and adaptive responses in the region, providing evidence-based guidance for interventions and risk-reduction planning.