Effectiveness of Chisapani station flood early warning system in Rajapur municipality, Bardiya

Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) are essential for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation, particularly in flood-prone regions like Rajapur municipality, Bardiya. This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of the Chisapani Flood Early Warning System, focusing on its strengths and limitations in reducing flood risks. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study utilizes deterministic forecast verification through the UN ESCAP toolkit, alongside a survey of 200 households, 32 key informant interviews (KIIs), and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) with the Sana Kisan women’s group to assess communication and preparedness. The system demonstrates a commendable accuracy rate of 86%; however, it faces significant challenges, including a high false alarm ratio of 56% and a detection probability of only 63%, which undermine public trust and hinder effective event identification. The primary communication strategy relies on SMS alerts, supplemented by the Barghar-Chaukidar system that uses sirens and community networks, with SMS being the preferred method for most participants. Despite reporting an average advance notice of 2-3 hours, household preparedness remains at a neutral level, indicating a considerable gap between awareness and actual readiness. This research underscores the importance of integrating modern technologies with traditional practices, enhancing community training initiatives, and maintaining accessible evacuation sites to bolster overall disaster preparedness in Rajapur. By addressing these gaps, the community can improve its resilience to flooding and ensure a more effective response to future events.